What will happen to the euro? The forecast of the euro
Many people do not cease to wonder,what will happen to the euro in the near future. Unstable economic situation in the world makes people look for ways to save their savings, and conversion into foreign currency is considered as one of the possible directions. We focus attention on the fact that today experts are not in a hurry to give forecasts, as most of them in the past six months have been mistaken.
Strengthening the dollar against the euro
In March 2015, most analysts saidon strengthening the dollar against the euro. There were predictions that by 2017 the US currency would be completely equal to the European one. Despite the rollback, which could be observed all April, the situation has not stabilized. To say that the negative dynamics of the euro has finally changed, it is too early.
The beginning of May was marked for the European currencytrades at the level of 1.1. Such world agencies as Goldman Sachs, Barclays and BNP Paribas, declared that the "European" will reach this price tag only by the end of 2015. A more optimistic forecast was provided by representatives of Wells Fargo, focusing on the level of 1.22. You can talk about a dual version of the development of events. Two directions are considered: falling to the level of the 2-year minimum and growth to the level of 1.22.
In the first half of 2015, experts expectGDP growth at the level of 1-2%. For Europe, this indicator can be considered more than positive. The expected macroeconomic indicators are set for a positive outlook for the euro. This is the unemployment rate of 9.5%, which was relatively recently estimated only in double digits, as well as inflation at 1%.
The fall of the European currency against the dollarspecialists associate with the more active development of the American economy over the past two years. Despite the expected growth of the euro in the next couple of years, today the course is constrained by many factors. We can say about the reduction in industrial production in Germany and in many other large countries. The problem is hidden in the uneven development of the EU states. The northern regions are now recovering only after prolonged stagnation.
The fall of the euro as a result of the speech of Mario Draghi
Mario Draghi in his last springspeeches repeatedly said that he intended to take all measures to reduce public debt. This can not fail to affect the euro exchange rate. Representatives of the agency Morgan Stanley say that the negative trend will be supported by the relative openness of the European trade zone, as well as the presence of deflationary pressure. An outflow of investment portfolio type, where the euro plays the role of the currency of financing, is fixed.
It is worth mentioning the fact that the EU hasa certain dependence on gas, which is imported from Russia, as well as from the import of its goods into the territory of the Russian Federation. The volumes of both gas and imports are being reduced today due to sanctions, which have a negative impact on the EU states. Despite the current trend, the euro, according to forecasts of world analysts, will not grow long. Investors are no longer hoping to strengthen the European monetary unit. As experts say: "The era of the dollar is in full swing". The only thing that remains to be hoped for is the restrictive actions on the part of the government of America, which will keep the exchange rate of the national currency at a certain level.
Considering the question of whatwill happen with the euro in the near future, many experts are trying to impose on the process of shaping the course of the situation with Greece. Analysts of the world agency Stratfor are considering only two options for the further development of events:
- Greece can leave the euro area, and Germanywill introduce the German brand. This is one of the most negative forecasts for the EU, which will send a couple of "euro / dollar" to a distant southern voyage. There is a risk of a complete collapse of the European currency.
- The second option is the continuation of the partnership withGreece, and with Germany. The financial support that will be provided to the states will not destabilize the global economy of the EU, but will only slow its rapid growth rates, which will not be a catastrophic event.
"One dollar - one euro" as one of the alternative scenarios
Considering the question of what will happen to the euroin the next few years, analysts of the agency Goldman sound the exchange rate at the level of 0.9 dollars = 1 euro already by 2017. Experts do not cease to talk about the threat of deflation and the almost zero, and sometimes negative growth of the economy. Since early 2015, the European national currency has fallen by 2.6% against the currencies of 9 countries. To parity with the dollar remained relatively short, only about 15%.
It is worth recalling that the euro has already fallen onone level with the US currency in 2012. At the end of 2014, the euro lost almost 12% of its value. According to Chris Iggo, head of the fixed income division of AXA Investment Management, parity will be achieved if the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed remain the same. Let us mention that in the fall of 2014 the ECB lowered the deposit rate by 0.2%. Echoes of the message Draghi on the purchase of sovereign bonds of European countries and on the next stage of the quantitative easing policy are still visible today in the format of the fall of the euro / dollar pair.
Today's rollback of the euro in the northerndirection is a direct consequence of the actions that the ECB has taken at the end of 2014. It is about reducing the interest rate from 0.15% to 0.05% and reducing the deposit rate, which was mentioned earlier. These record low rates for the European zone stimulated active lending by banks to the real rather than financial sector of the economy. Only six months after the adoption of the ECB's cardinal measures, the European economy began to gradually recover. Recall that the reduction in the rate no one guessed. A similar scenario was possible only for six economists from the surveyed fifty-seven.
Euro and Russian national currency
Despite the fact that the euro forecast forthe dollar remains negative, the ruble / euro ratio will be completely opposite. European currency in relation to the ruble in the near future will continue its growth. The weakening economy of Europe against the backdrop of Russia is in a very favorable position. The situation is caused by the events taking place on the world oil market. In parallel with the fall in the cost of oil, the euro exchange rate will also grow. Despite today's rise in price of oil, experts are still waiting for lower prices for black gold to the January low, so you can count on a second jump in the growth of the euro in Russia. Do not forget that the forecast remains a forecast, and the likelihood that the ruble will begin to strengthen positions is high.
What will the price be for the euro, according to the best world analysts?
Opinions of experts on the euro diverge anddiffer in their optimism. Deutsche Bank believes in falling below parity and stops at a rate of $ 0.95 per euro by the end of 2017. The author of the forecast George Sarawelos starts from the fact that in 2000 the euro / dollar pair traded at the level of 0.8300. Due to the wave structure of the course's fluctuations, with a periodicity of seven to nine years, Deutsche Bank's experts do not see anything catastrophic in the situation.
The British bank HSBC gives a slightly different forecastof the euro. Experts of the financial institution are confident that by the end of 2015 the euro will be paired with the dollar at the level of 1.19. Representatives of Barclays prefer a level of 1.1, which can be seen today, but experts at Morgan Stanley are inclined to the index of 1.14.
At the moment, it is problematic to say, as infurther behaves the euro. The price today is not stabilized, in fact, like the EU economy itself after the crisis not only at the end of 2014, but also in 2008-2009. A complex factual situation does not prevent many analysts from believing in the very promising future of the European monetary unit. It remains only to observe what will happen to the euro further.